Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which mainly discusses why the Oilers are small favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you wish to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either group could be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is definitely playing a part. You're simply playing the portions. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook notes the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that crucial 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 preferred to end up being the first Canadian team considering that Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven video games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the cash has actually been available in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) talks to media during a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


"I would anticipate that to probably continue," Cipollini said. "I believe we'll most likely take a bit more Oilers money simply since of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I believe we will wind up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not purchase the Oilers need to be favored.


"You do not see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you always ask yourself the obvious question: Are these two teams better or worse than they were in 2015? I 'd say Florida is a better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) a little even worse than last year, particularly when you take a look at no Zach Hyman offered for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I give the edges to off of they have actually been playing better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter team than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain became the 2nd skater and sixth gamer to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, providing him a chance to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to offer McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred because of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they might give it to him here, however that's something to view as the games get going. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't actually sticking out ... there is a real life where it might be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been considered as a weakness on the roster, a reputation that appeared to be sealed when he was benched 2 games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major reason Edmonton is still playing. He has actually allowed one or no goals in 5 of his previous 7 starts, 3 of them nothings.


Another excellent run in the web could put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually told you this was sustainable in the past," Smith stated of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its third successive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness could lastly reach the Panthers. Or they might merely be on a heating unit having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics point to a Panthers champion and though either result would be great with Caesars, a Florida victory would be better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "Last year was a little bit harder due to the fact that more people liked Florida, however individuals are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently might go in either case and Oklahoma City is greatly favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has an opportunity to go 6 or seven games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press through AP, File)