March Madness Trends: 3 To Trust And 3 To Avoid
Most seed-versus-seed outcomes should be taken with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila followed by a lime wedge), but there's no rejecting the No. 12 versus No. 5 March Madness pattern. Despite the randomness, this pairing continues to produce profits for those choosing the No. 12 seed - at least against the spread.
Since 2012, No. 5 seeds are 27-21 SU versus No. 12 seeds and 20-27-1 ATS in those opening-round matches. Over the past five Big Dances (remembering we didn't have one in 2020), No. 5 seeds are 12-8 SU and 9-11 ATS, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the 2024 tournament Round of 64.
Don't simply blindly wager on No. 12 seeds over No. 5's but treat this trend with regard - like managing a cobra.
Three trends to fade
There's a surplus of shallow March Madness wagering patterns out there that you need to never ever blindly trail when positioning your bets or constructing your bracket. Here's the pointer of the iceberg.
Conference trends
Certain conferences will have stronger historical ATS records in the NCAA Tournament, but the teams, opponents, players and spreads all differ when building out this bull crap. The general strength of conferences sways every year, so don't go chasing after the SEC teams or fading ACC schools based exclusively on those conferences' counts against the spread.
Seed vs. Seed patterns
We've singled out the No. 5-versus-No. 12 pattern, which ruined a great deal of "smart" brackets with all four No. 5 seeds advancing in 2023. Bettors should tread lightly with that info and more so with other trends around seed-versus-seed. The level of parity in college basketball seems to be expanding by the season, so do not base a bet exclusively on the Selection .
Point spread and Over/Under trends
Brace yourself for some doozies when it pertains to any historical NCAA Tournament patterns powered by spreads and totals. You'll get tantalizing trends around the Round of 64 underdogs in between a particular point variety and Over/Under pointers based upon previous overalls from certain seeding matches.
As pointed out, some trends can lead you down the right handicapping roadway however a number of these take you and your bankroll to a dead end. Be doubtful of these trends and look into the past results that powered them. If you can, attempt to identify a narrative behind them that might roll over into this year's March Madness field.
How sportsbooks deal with March Madness patterns
Perhaps the finest method to evaluate how helpful March Madness wagering patterns are is to look at the folks setting the chances for March Madness.
If you ask an oddsmaker if they're factoring in the past against the spread (ATS) success of No. 15 seeds into this year's No. 2-versus-No. 15 match odds, they'll likely laugh in your face. Bookmakers mainly overlook historic patterns, especially in college sports, as player and skill turnover varies significantly from year-to-year.
Oddsmakers base their numbers on current kind and information from that season rather than historical hoo-ha pulling from random groups with random players led by random coaches from random conferences dipping into random sites. You get the concept.
The verdict on March Madness patterns
Basketball gamblers need to watch out for many March Madness patterns. While banking on them blindly is bonkers, there are lessons to be found out from evaluating them and picking up on past patterns.
Veteran handicapper Marc Lawrence has an enormous sports betting database that pumps out numerous March Madness wagering patterns every year. And while he doesn't leap on board all those with his NCAA Tournament bets, he sees the value in what he calls "expecting expectancy".
"There is a factor that Winston Churchill stated, 'Those who stop working to discover from history are doomed to duplicate it,'" Lawrence states. "By discovering failures and successes from the past and using abilities from today, we progress, well-rounded handicappers. Yes, teams change, however strategies and patterns are extremely predictive ... By depending on past patterns, we can better expect span."
March Madness wagering sites
March Madness is a popular season for sports gamblers and among the busiest for online sportsbooks. With every wagering website offering March Madness odds, it is essential to understand which are safe and secure, provide a large range of banking choices, and provide you a heap of markets for each game. Have a look at the very best March Madness betting websites in your area, reviewed by Covers' group of well-informed professionals.
