March Madness Trends: 3 To Trust And 3 To Avoid

Most seed-versus-seed outcomes should be taken with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila followed by a lime wedge), however there's no denying the No. 12 versus No. 5 March Madness pattern. Despite the randomness, this pairing continues to produce earnings for those choosing the No. 12 seed - at least against the spread.


Since 2012, No. 5 seeds are 27-21 SU versus No. 12 seeds and 20-27-1 ATS in those opening-round matches. Over the previous 5 Big Dances (remembering we didn't have one in 2020), No. 5 seeds are 12-8 SU and 9-11 ATS, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the 2024 competition Round of 64.


Don't just blindly bank on No. 12 seeds over No. 5's however treat this trend with respect - like managing a cobra.


Three trends to fade


There's a surplus of shallow March Madness betting trends out there that you must never blindly trail when placing your bets or developing your bracket. Here's the pointer of the iceberg.


Conference patterns


Certain conferences will have more powerful historic ATS records in the NCAA Tournament, however the teams, challengers, gamers and spreads all vary when constructing out this bull crap. The general strength of conferences sways every year, so do not go chasing the SEC teams or fading ACC schools based exclusively on those conferences' counts against the spread.


Seed vs. Seed patterns


We've singled out the No. 5-versus-No. 12 pattern, which ruined a lot of "smart" brackets with all 4 No. 5 seeds advancing in 2023. Bettors need to tread gently with that details and more so with other trends around seed-versus-seed. The level of parity in college basketball seems to be widening by the season, so don't base a bet exclusively on the Selection Committee's seeding.


Point spread and Over/Under trends


Brace yourself for some doozies when it pertains to any historical NCAA Tournament trends powered by spreads and overalls. You'll get tantalizing patterns around the Round of 64 underdogs in between a specific point range and Over/Under pointers based on previous overalls from certain seeding matches.


As mentioned, some trends can lead you down the best handicapping roadway but much of these take you and your bankroll to a dead end. Be hesitant of these patterns and look into the previous results that powered them. If you can, attempt to find a story behind them that might roll over into this year's March Madness field.


How sportsbooks deal with March Madness patterns


Perhaps the very best way to evaluate how useful March Madness wagering trends are is to look at the folks setting the odds for March Madness.


If you ask an oddsmaker if they're considering the past versus the spread (ATS) success of No. 15 seeds into this year's No. 2-versus-No. 15 match chances, they'll likely laugh in your face. Bookmakers largely neglect historic trends, particularly in college sports, as player and ability turnover varies significantly from year-to-year.


Oddsmakers base their numbers on current type and information from that season rather than historic hoo-ha from random groups with random players led by random coaches from random conferences playing at random websites. You understand.


The decision on March Madness trends


Basketball bettors should watch out for many March Madness trends. While betting on them blindly is bonkers, there are lessons to be gained from assessing them and detecting past patterns.


Veteran handicapper Marc Lawrence has a huge sports wagering database that pumps out several March Madness betting trends every year. And while he does not get on board all those with his NCAA Tournament bets, he sees the worth in what he calls "anticipating expectancy".


"There is a reason that Winston Churchill stated, 'Those who stop working to learn from history are doomed to repeat it,'" Lawrence says. "By learning failures and successes from the past and using skills from today, we end up being much better, well-rounded handicappers. Yes, groups change, but methods and patterns are extremely predictive ... By relying on past patterns, we can better expect expectancy."


March Madness betting sites


March Madness is a preferred season for sports wagerers and among the busiest for online sportsbooks. With every wagering site offering March Madness chances, it is essential to know which are safe and safe and secure, use a vast array of banking options, and offer you a load of markets for each video game. Check out the very best March Madness betting websites in your area, examined by Covers' team of educated experts.